Andy Xie, one of the leading prophets of the China Bear movement, backed away from his previous calls that China’s real estate market will crash. But Xie, in a debate Wednesday on CNBC Asia with China Market Research Group head Shaun Rein, reiterated his forecast that the real estate market in China has peaked.

Andy Xie said around the 4:20 mark that the “property market has peaked; it is going down” but “it is not crashing like I expected in 2012 because the government now is determined..they..do not want my scenario to work out.” Xie had originally called for a crash before 2012 but then pushed it back.

Actually, the government has been pretty clear all along that they do not want the market to crash. In April PBOC adviser Li Daokui told Bloomberg that “The property market will not see price falls of 20 to 30 percent because that could ‘could lead to new social problems‘”.

If China’s real estate market doesn’t crash, how will things work out for China bears like Jim Chanos?

Please tell me what you think in the comments.

You can subscribe to this blog’s RSS feed here, get my more frequent Twitter updates @niubi, and see my Sina Weibo updates here. You can also follow my blogging on digital media and the Internet in China at DigiCha. And if you want cupcakes or custom cakes in Beijing, please check out my girlfriend’s CCSweets bakery. CCSweets has locations in Central Park in CBD and the Village North in Sanlitun, and you can always order online.